Young employees in Germany are losing ground in occupations most exposed to artificial intelligence, even as overall employment in those fields continues to grow, according to newly released research from the country’s ifo Institute.
The November 9 findings show that full-time employment among 20- to 24-year-olds in highly AI-exposed occupations declined by 14% since the third quarter of 2022, falling from approximately 279,000 to 239,000 workers.
The results suggest that changes associated with AI may emerge first in recruitment and early-career opportunities rather than widespread layoffs.
However, researchers cautioned that the figures do not prove AI caused the employment decline.
Entry-Level Employees Face a Different Labour Market
The ifo Institute developed an early indicator comparing employment and hiring trends across 140 occupations according to how exposed their tasks are to AI.
Researchers found that overall employment in the most AI-exposed occupations increased by 1.8% since the third quarter of 2022. Employment in the least-exposed occupations declined by 6.4%.
The contrasting results suggest that AI exposure alone does not determine whether an occupation gains or loses workers.
Instead, younger employees appear particularly vulnerable when automation affects tasks traditionally assigned to newcomers.
“We see no sign so far of broad job losses due to AI,” said ifo President Clemens Fuest, while warning that those entering employment are experiencing changes earlier.
Oliver Falck, director of the ifo Center for the Economics of Innovation and Digital Transformation, described labour-market entry as an early warning indicator of AI’s economic effects.
Ifo economist Yuchen Guo pointed to clerical and IT support positions as examples of occupations where AI can already perform tasks that previously offered entry routes into employment.
Similar Patterns Are Emerging Internationally
The German findings align with research by Stanford University economists Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar and Ruyu Chen.
Using administrative payroll records covering millions of US workers through June 2026, the researchers found that employment among workers aged 22–25 in AI-exposed occupations was 19% below the level expected if it had followed the growth of less-exposed peers.
Their analysis indicated that weaker hiring, rather than increased job separations, explained much of the difference.
The researchers also distinguished occupations where AI substitutes for existing work from those where it complements employees’ capabilities.
A November 9 analysis by Reserve Bank of Australia researcher Mike Major identified tentative signs of weaker outcomes for younger workers in AI-exposed occupations but found limited evidence of broad disruption across Australia’s labour market.
These studies provide emerging indicators, not conclusive proof of AI-driven displacement.
The Risk of Weakening the Talent Pipeline
The findings create a challenge for technology companies using AI to reduce repetitive work.
Automating junior-level responsibilities may improve immediate productivity, but employers still need pathways through which less-experienced workers can acquire technical judgment and professional expertise.
The World Economic Forum’s framework on entry-level employment identifies job access, job design, talent pipelines and education alignment as areas requiring attention.
German researchers likewise recommend stronger training in skills that complement AI rather than focusing exclusively on activities susceptible to automation.
For founders and engineering leaders, the question extends beyond how many tasks AI agents can perform.
It also concerns whether today’s employment decisions will leave companies with enough experienced professionals to build, evaluate and supervise future technology.
If fewer newcomers receive opportunities to develop those skills, short-term efficiency gains could create longer-term workforce challenges.
