Fitch Ratings is warning that the financial system’s growing dependence on artificial intelligence investment could turn a technology-market decline into a wider credit shock.
Fitch’s third-quarter Global Risk Outlook identified exposure to an AI-related market correction as one of the two main short-term threats to global credit. The other major risk involves continuing uncertainty surrounding the conflict between the United States and Iran.
AI Boom Is No Longer Limited to Technology Stocks
The danger identified by Fitch extends beyond the possibility that shares of AI companies could lose value.
Reuters said AI investment has become increasingly intertwined with economic activity and capital markets, particularly in the United States. Fitch warned that the scale of the investment has created significant exposure across both the economy and the wider financial market.
Investment Executive’s report focused on the credit implications of uncertain AI spending, reflecting concerns that disappointing revenue, weaker demand or changing technology could leave companies with expensive infrastructure and higher financing obligations.
The risk has become more significant because data centers, advanced chips, power supplies and computing networks are increasingly being financed through debt rather than entirely through existing corporate cash.
Corporate Borrowing Surges With AI Spending
US corporate bond issuance increased by 26% during the first half of 2026, with AI-related fundraising accounting for much of the growth.
Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia, Meta, Oracle and SpaceX issued a combined $182 billion in investment-grade bonds.
Borrowing can accelerate construction and technological development, but it also distributes the risk among lenders and bond investors. Companies must continue servicing their debts even when projects take longer than expected to generate revenue.
Investment Executive noted that the uncertain returns attached to AI investment are becoming increasingly relevant to credit conditions, rather than remaining only a concern for shareholders betting on technology valuations.
Big Tech Capital Spending Heads Toward $700 Billion
Combined capital expenditure by Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft is expected to rise by more than 75% in 2026, reaching approximately $700 billion.
That spending has produced measurable economic benefits. Expanding information-technology investment contributed an estimated 1.4 percentage points to US gross domestic product growth during the first quarter. Higher stock prices have also supported household spending through the wealth effect.
However, those benefits create a possible reversal mechanism. A market correction could reduce corporate investment, weaken consumer confidence and make financing more expensive at the same time.
Market Valuations Approach Dot-Com-Era Levels
The S&P 500’s cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio has climbed near levels recorded during the late-1990s dot-com boom.
The comparison does not automatically mean that AI represents another technology bubble. It does show that current valuations rely heavily on expectations that AI investments will eventually produce significant earnings and productivity gains.
Fitch identified uncertainty involving future AI revenue, competition, regulation and labor-market disruption as factors that could cause a substantial and prolonged correction with broader economic consequences.
Iran Conflict and El Niño Add More Pressure
Fitch’s warning comes as the credit environment faces risks beyond technology.
Renewed US-Iran fighting and another closure of the Strait of Hormuz could increase energy prices, weaken growth and intensify inflation. Fitch expects global growth to slow to 2.4% in 2026 and US inflation to reach 3.7% by the end of the year.
Fitch considers a strong El Niño pattern an emerging credit threat because droughts, floods and severe storms could increase food prices and place more pressure on heavily indebted countries with speculative-grade ratings.
Fitch is not predicting that the AI market will inevitably collapse. Its warning shows that the technology boom has become large enough—and sufficiently dependent on borrowing—that uncertain returns could affect companies, investors and economies well beyond the technology sector.
